In recent years, the global market has witnessed the emergence of hundreds of models of commercial electric vehicles (EVs), reflecting the anticipation of a surge in demand for low- and zero-emission on-highway solutions. Despite this, the adoption rate for these vehicles has not yet matched the expected surge.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report in 2022, approximately 66,000 electric buses and 60,000 medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks were sold worldwide. However, these sales only represented 4.5% of total bus sales and 1.2% of total truck sales globally. Notably, the majority of these vehicles (80% of trucks and 85% of buses) remained in China, where they were manufactured.
“Electrification is occurring at varying rates globally, predominantly led by China due to its early initiation and robust hold on the supply chain,” stated Eric Azeroual, Vice President of On Highway for Danfoss Editron. “Following China, Europe is witnessing significant progress driven by government policies in various cities, while the U.S., especially California, is making strides to reduce emissions.”
However, the North American market paints a different picture, with the adoption rate remaining relatively low. “Looking at the 2023 production data for Class 3 to Class 8 vehicles, the adoption rate is still very low,” noted Thomas Heck, Key Account Manager for heavy-duty customers at Schaeffler. “Out of approximately 630,000 vehicles produced in North America within that class range, less than 6,000 are battery electric, with a few hundred fuel cell vehicles added on top of that.”
Despite the current scenario, most commercial vehicle OEMs and their suppliers are optimistic about the future of electrification. Shaun Twomey, Global Market & Sales Lead for ZF’s Commercial Vehicle Solutions division, projected a significant increase in electrification rates within the next few years. “By 2030, we anticipate the electrification rate for medium-duty vehicles to nearly reach 30%, and for heavy-duty vehicles, it’s expected to approach 20%,” he stated.
Medium-duty vehicles are considered more suitable for electrification due to their predictable routes and frequent return to a home base for charging. School buses and urban delivery vehicles are expected to lead the market, benefiting from their predictable routes and limited daily travel distances.
Challenges remain, particularly concerning the charging infrastructure required to support heavier-duty vehicles. However, advancements in technology and government incentives are expected to address these challenges over time. “While there are challenges today, especially for heavy-duty vehicles, they will continue to play a role in 2030, albeit to a lesser extent,” Twomey remarked.
Despite the higher initial purchase cost of electric vehicles compared to traditional vehicles, the total cost of ownership (TCO) is becoming increasingly compelling, driven by lower maintenance costs and stable electricity prices. Government incentives, such as tax credits and vouchers, are also helping to offset the upfront costs for fleet operators.
“Incentives play a crucial role in making electric vehicles more accessible to fleet operators,” emphasized Heck. “It’s essential for fleet owners to explore available incentives and work with their partners in the value chain to navigate the complex landscape of electrification.”
As the industry continues to evolve, collaboration between fleet owners, OEMs, suppliers, and policymakers will be key to accelerating the adoption of commercial electric vehicles and driving a sustainable future.
