Closing the Gap: Assessing Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Plans for Paris Agreement Goals
In order to meet the ambitious goals set forth in the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations must make rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. However, achieving these targets also requires significant reliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies. A recent study published in Nature Climate Change delves into the “CDR gap” – the disparity between the amount of CDR outlined in national climate plans and what is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Current State of CDR and the Paris Agreement
Currently, CDR efforts remove approximately 3 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, primarily through land-based methods such as afforestation and reforestation. While national climate plans aim to increase CDR by up to 1.9 billion tonnes of CO2 per year by 2050, the study finds a significant CDR gap ranging from 0.4 to 5.5 billion tonnes per year by 2050 to meet the 1.5°C target.
Assessment of CDR Scenarios
The study examines various Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to assess different pathways for limiting warming to 1.5°C. These scenarios show that while current national targets may increase CDR by 1.5-1.9 billion tonnes annually by 2050, they fall short of meeting the requirements for any of the 1.5°C scenarios.
Challenges and Debates Surrounding CDR
The reliance on large-scale CDR raises concerns among experts, including fears of “mitigation deterrence” and sustainability risks associated with land-based CDR methods. The study acknowledges these concerns and emphasizes the need for careful consideration of the ecological and societal impacts of CDR deployment.
Recommendations for Enhanced Reporting and Transparency
The study highlights the need for clearer reporting of CDR plans by nations, as only a limited number of countries have outlined quantifiable CDR scenarios in their long-term strategies. Increased transparency in reporting would enable better assessment of the adequacy and ambition of CDR plans in achieving global climate goals.
In conclusion, while CDR holds promise as a mitigation strategy, addressing the CDR gap requires comprehensive planning, transparency, and careful consideration of its potential impacts on sustainability and emissions reduction efforts.
