After the ritual, we’ll see just how far Russia’s leader is willing to go in shaking up his aging inner circle.
As Vladimir Putin takes center stage for his fifth presidential inauguration, it might seem like déjà vu at the Grand Kremlin Palace. But what follows holds more intrigue.
Russian tradition and law demand a government shake-up with each new president, offering a glimpse into Putin’s mindset as he embarks on another six-year term.
Amidst Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine, Putin shows no signs of swaying from his current course of action—be it towards Kyiv, within Russia, or in his dealings with the West.
“The main aim for Putin is to bolster military might, maintain economic stability, shield against sanctions, and curb inflation,” explains Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik.
But the real insight lies in how extensively Putin reshuffles his team to carry out these goals. Over the years, Putin has relied on two governance models: old guard stalwarts like Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and loyal technocrats like Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina.
Yet, with many of his trusted allies pushing into their seventies, including Lavrov (74) and Shoigu (68), Putin faces a dilemma.
“It’s time for Putin’s generation to step aside, but their successors aren’t ready,” says Nikolai Petrov of Chatham House.
The recent arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov for bribery, widely viewed as a move against Shoigu, could signal Putin’s willingness to upend the status quo.
“If Putin aims to sustain his rule, he must transform the system,” adds political analyst Abbas Gallyamov.
The coming changes will reveal whether Putin is ready to break from tradition to ensure the longevity of his regime.
