Good morning.
Tensions are escalating in Rafah, the southern Gaza city that’s become a shelter for over a million displaced people. Today, Israeli armed forces asked residents in the “eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah” to temporarily relocate to a newly designated humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi. This move follows ongoing warnings of a ground invasion as Israeli forces pursue Hamas militants. To keep track of further updates, you can follow The Guardian’s live blog.
In this newsletter, we’ll also examine the fallout from a week in English local politics. The Conservative Party expected a difficult time in the local and mayoral elections, and their fears were justified. The Conservatives lost control of 10 councils and 473 seats, while Labour gained 185 seats and reclaimed councils they hadn’t held in years. The results didn’t improve for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. His party lost 10 out of 11 mayoral races, including in York and North Yorkshire—where Sunak’s own constituency lies—and the West Midlands, which they had hoped to retain. The only bright spot for Sunak was Ben Houchen’s re-election as Tees Valley mayor, showing that the Tories can still win in red wall seats, though with much smaller majorities.
Labour, on the other hand, secured victories in all the places they expected to and even in some where they didn’t anticipate winning. I spoke with Guardian political correspondent Kiran Stacey about the aftermath of the week’s elections for today’s newsletter. Here’s the rest of the story, along with some key headlines:
### Five Big Stories
1. **China**: Xi Jinping arrived in Paris for a rare visit amid rising trade disputes with the EU. French President Emmanuel Macron plans to discuss trade imbalances with Xi and encourage him to use his influence on Russia over the war in Ukraine.
2. **Israel-Gaza War**: Israel used a U.S.-made weapon in a March airstrike that killed seven volunteer paramedics in southern Lebanon, according to a Guardian analysis of shrapnel found at the site. Human Rights Watch described the attack as a violation of international law. Additionally, Israeli authorities shut down the local offices of Al Jazeera in Jerusalem, raising concerns about media freedom.
3. **Immigration and Asylum**: Rwanda has admitted it cannot guarantee how many people it will take from the UK under Rishi Sunak’s deportation plan, nor could it confirm if it would accept the estimated 52,000 asylum seekers eligible to be sent to Kigali.
4. **Agriculture**: The National Farmers’ Union warned that farmers’ confidence is at a 14-year low due to extreme weather and the phasing-out of EU subsidies. Many farmers expect to reduce food production next year, with arable farming being hit hardest.
5. **Transport**: Train drivers in the Aslef union are starting a new round of industrial action, with strikes planned at each of England’s national train operators from Tuesday to Thursday. An overtime ban will also be in effect nationwide from today until Saturday.
### In Depth: ‘It’s the Worst of Both Worlds for the Conservatives’
For Sunak, the loss of the mayoral race in York and North Yorkshire, which covers his own constituency, was particularly stinging. In other notable results, Andy Street’s seven-year run as the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands ended with Labour’s Richard Parker winning by a slim margin of 1,508 votes after a partial recount. The only Tory success in the mayoral races came in Tees Valley, where Ben Houchen was re-elected, albeit with a reduced majority from his previous campaign.
In London, Sadiq Khan secured a record third term as mayor with 43.9% of the vote. The Conservative candidate Susan Hall managed only 32.6%, after a campaign criticized as “narrow” and “negative.” Andy Burnham won a landslide victory for Labour in Greater Manchester, while Steve Rotheram and Tracy Brabin also secured Labour victories in Liverpool and West Yorkshire, respectively.
Despite these Labour gains, it’s not all smooth sailing for the party. Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza has caused tension among Muslim and progressive voters. Labour’s unexpected loss of Oldham council and a near 18% drop in the Labour vote in areas with significant Muslim populations have raised concerns. Independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob’s strong showing in West Midlands was attributed to his Gaza-focused campaign.
The Conservative party is now in a tough spot. The disappointing results have intensified calls for changes in strategy ahead of the next general election. While centrist Conservatives are pushing for a more moderate approach, the right wing of the party, represented by figures like Suella Braverman, is advocating for a harder line. Sunak will likely continue his focus on the economy, hoping that improved economic conditions will boost his party’s prospects.
Finally, a few more stories that might interest you:
– Neha Gohil interviewed British students involved in pro-Palestinian demonstrations after chaotic scenes on U.S. campuses.
– Joel Golby reviewed the final season of “Inside No. 9,” praising its unique and unconventional approach to TV comedy.
– Michael Gonzalez reported from Texas on the state’s costly anti-immigration policies, which have caused significant environmental damage along the border with Mexico.
– Benjamina Ebuehi’s double chocolate and mascarpone traybake recipe is a must-try for anyone with a sweet tooth.
Sports highlights include Lando Norris’s historic victory at the Miami Grand Prix for McLaren, Chelsea’s dominant 8-0 win in the Women’s Super League, and Liverpool’s 4-2 triumph over Tottenham in the Premier League.
In the press today, the Guardian leads with “Labour sets sights on ‘blue wall’ seats at next election.” The Daily Mail’s headline reads, “Dozens of pro-Gaza activists elected,” while the Daily Telegraph reports, “Sunak shelves summer election.” The Financial Times warns Sunak that he needs “vision” to repair the party after the election losses.
