When Donald J. Trump hosted a rally in Rome, Georgia, in March, among the crowd was Luke Harris, a 19-year-old college student attending his first Trump event. He grew up in Cartersville, Georgia, listening to his parents talk about Trump, who became a household name when he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 to win the presidency. “I kind of grew into it,” said Harris, now a student at Kennesaw State University.
Trump’s victory in 2016 marked a significant shift in American politics, representing a break from tradition. His supporters saw him as someone who would challenge the status quo, while his detractors feared the same. But for younger voters who grew up during Trump’s presidency, he represents the normality of their childhood.
Take Charlie Meyer, for example. He’s a 17-year-old high school student who volunteered at a Trump rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, last month. Meyer was 13 when he first became interested in Trump’s presidency, drawn by his views on abortion, which aligned with his own as a Christian. “I was too young to really remember pre-Trump politics,” he said.
Though President Biden continues to lead in most polls among 18- to 29-year-olds, Trump is performing better among young voters than he did in 2020 and even compared to 2016. According to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, Biden and Trump were running neck and neck among 18- to 29-year-olds. Another poll by the Harvard Institute of Politics found Biden leading Trump by eight points among young voters, a much smaller gap than in 2020 when Biden beat Trump by 24 points.
John Della Volpe, who conducted the Harvard poll, pointed out that while Trump isn’t leading, he’s doing as well as any Republican candidate since 2012 at this stage of the race, suggesting that young voters’ support is shifting. However, there are caveats. Trump’s relatively strong performance among young voters is somewhat at odds with their traditionally liberal leanings, which have historically favored Democratic candidates.
Pollsters also note that young people seem less engaged in this election cycle than in 2020. Daniel A. Cox from the American Enterprise Institute mentioned that young voters are paying less attention to the 2024 election, possibly because they haven’t tuned in yet. He added that polls tend to show Biden performing better among registered or likely voters, suggesting lower engagement among younger audiences.
Despite this, Trump’s campaign sees potential in this demographic shift, especially among young men. A Times/Siena poll from February showed that young voters were more likely to say they had been personally helped by Trump’s policies than by Biden’s and were more likely to report having been hurt by Biden’s policies than by Trump’s. In both cases, about half of the respondents felt neither president’s policies had significantly impacted them.
John Brabender, a media consultant for Trump’s campaign, noted that the coronavirus pandemic had a lasting impact on young people, disrupting their high school and college experiences. This dissatisfaction likely hurt Trump in 2020, but Brabender believes it could damage Biden’s chances in 2024.
“They’re extremely frustrated with Biden for that,” he said. Biden’s campaign emphasizes a return to pre-Trump norms, but those who were in middle school when Trump first came to power might not resonate with that message. For them, Trump has been a constant, not a disruption.
Makai Henry, an 18-year-old student at Florida International University, remarked that he sees this era as the “Trump era.” For some young voters, Trump is just one part of their evolving political identities, rather than a central figure.
Given these shifts in the political landscape, it’s uncertain how the youth vote will swing in 2024, but it’s clear that young people’s perspectives on Trump are different from older generations.
