In the aftermath of the upcoming ritual, all eyes will be on Russia’s leader and the changes he might make to his aging inner circle.
As Vladimir Putin prepares for his fifth presidential inauguration, set against the familiar backdrop of the Grand Kremlin Palace, speculation is rife about what follows this ceremonial event.
Tradition and Russian law demand a government reshuffle with the swearing-in of a new president, offering a glimpse into Putin’s mindset as he embarks on another term. Yet, amidst Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine and strained relations with the West, Putin seems resolute in his current course of action.
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, suggests that Putin’s priorities remain focused on bolstering the military, stabilizing the economy, and navigating international sanctions, rather than pivoting from his established policies.
However, the extent to which Putin revamps his team will reveal his willingness to break from old patterns for the sake of his regime’s longevity. Nikolai Petrov of Chatham House notes Putin’s reliance on both longstanding allies and competent technocrats to execute his agenda.
Yet, with key figures like Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu aging, the need for rejuvenation is evident. Petrov highlights the dilemma facing Putin: the imperative to replace the old guard with capable successors while maintaining control over the system.
Recent events, such as the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, suggest potential upheaval within Putin’s inner circle. Abbas Gallyamov suggests this may signal Putin’s readiness to challenge entrenched power structures.
Such a departure from the status quo would mark a significant shift, particularly considering past leniency towards underperforming officials. Putin’s past preference for pliable candidates may give rise to unexpected appointments, potentially from within his close circle or even among military figures involved in Ukraine.
Ultimately, Putin’s upcoming reshuffle holds the promise of both continuity and change, offering insights into the future trajectory of Russian politics.
