The American economy is expected to have added another robust number of jobs in April, maintaining its resilience despite facing the highest interest rates in two decades.
According to a survey conducted by the data firm FactSet, economists predict that employers added approximately 233,000 jobs last month. Although this figure is lower than the impressive 303,000 jobs added in March, it still reflects a healthy rate of job growth.
The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 3.8%, marking the 27th consecutive month with a jobless rate below 4% — the longest such streak since the 1960s.
As the November presidential campaign heats up, the state of the economy is a key concern for voters. While the job market remains strong, many Americans are frustrated by high prices, with some attributing blame to President Joe Biden.
However, despite expectations of economic downturn following aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the job market has remained resilient. The Fed raised its benchmark rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, yet the economy continued to expand, buoyed by robust consumer spending.
Although there are signs that the pace of job growth may eventually slow, such as a decline in job openings and fewer Americans quitting their jobs, the overall labor market remains stable. Economists note that recent job growth has been concentrated in sectors like healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and government.
Despite efforts to combat inflation, progress has stalled, raising questions about the timing of potential Fed rate cuts. Most economists do not expect any rate cuts until at least the fall, as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
Inflation will be a key factor for the Fed, which aims for steady employment and slowing wage pressure. While hourly wages rose by 4.1% year-over-year in March, economists anticipate a slight slowdown in wage growth to around 4% in April.
