Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, has an impressive track record of predicting U.S. presidential elections. Since Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984, he’s correctly called nine out of the last ten presidential races. So how does he do it? It’s not magic or mystical; he uses a scientific approach, applying principles from the study of earthquakes to American politics.
Lichtman came up with his system in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Moscow-based earthquake expert, back in 1981. They created a model with 13 indicators, or “keys,” to predict election outcomes. These keys cover a mix of politics, performance, and even candidate personality traits. According to Lichtman’s system, if the incumbent party loses six out of these 13 keys, they lose the White House.
In a recent interview with USA Today, Lichtman talked about his approach and shared his early thoughts on the 2024 presidential race, likely to be between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
How did you get interested in politics?
Lichtman grew up in a politically engaged family, where politics was a common topic at dinner. In 1960, at just 13 years old, he attended a John F. Kennedy rally in New York City and was captivated by Kennedy’s charisma. Since then, he’s been deeply interested in politics.
How did you start predicting presidential elections?
Lichtman’s journey into election prediction began when he was a visiting scholar at the California Institute of Technology in 1981. There, he met Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a leading earthquake prediction expert from Moscow. Keilis-Borok proposed applying earthquake prediction methods to U.S. presidential elections. Using Keilis-Borok’s pattern recognition techniques, they analyzed every U.S. presidential election from 1860 to 1980, which led to the creation of the “13 Keys to the White House.” These are a set of true-false questions that help determine if the incumbent party will maintain power or face a political earthquake.
What did you see in the 2020 election?
Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would lose to Biden in 2020. Initially, Trump was only down four keys. However, when the pandemic hit, the economy tanked, and Trump’s handling of the crisis led to him losing two more keys, making it clear he would be defeated.
What about 2024?
Lichtman hasn’t yet announced his official prediction for 2024, which he plans to do in August, but he has some early observations. He cautions against relying too much on polls or pundits. Instead, his system focuses on governance, not just campaigning.
He noted that Biden currently has two keys working against him: the mandate key, because the Democrats lost seats in the 2022 midterms, and the incumbent charisma key, as Biden isn’t known for his dynamic personality. Additionally, there are four keys that are somewhat shaky:
Third-party: This key depends on whether a third-party candidate can get at least 5% of the popular vote. With RFK Jr. running as an independent, it’s unclear if he’ll meet this threshold.
Social unrest: While initially stable, recent campus protests have made this key uncertain.
Foreign policy success and failure: Both keys are shaky due to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
For Biden to lose, he would need to lose all four of these shaky keys or face some unexpected event like a sudden recession Overall, Lichtman suggests that Biden’s re-election prospects look reasonably good, but he emphasizes that much could change between now and Election Day.
